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ABSTRACT Accurately estimating species distributions is critical for tracking how biodiversity is shaped by global change. While some species are expanding their ranges, the importance of factors like climate change, habitat change, and human avoidance for explaining this expansion is not well understood. Here, we used observations of 94 North American mammals on iNaturalist to (1) identify errors of omission in the existing range maps; (2) differentiate between extra‐range populations that are likely products of natural expansions vs. introductions; and (3) test hypotheses about where natural range expansions occur. We found a substantial percentage of observations were outside both IUCN (16%) and Area of Habitat (36%) maps, suggesting that integrating contemporary citizen science data would improve existing range maps. We estimated that most observations outside IUCN ranges were natural expansions and 95% of species had at least one naturally expanding population. We also identified introductions for 36% of species, which were particularly extensive for several species. We show that natural range expansions are generally associated with a lighter human footprint and less habitat change and are not associated with warming temperatures. This suggests that habitat modifications by humans constrain the ability of species to expand their range to track a changing climate. We also found substantial variation in the directionality of effects from all factors across species, meaning that our species‐specific findings will be useful for conservation planning. Our study demonstrates that citizen science data can be useful for conservation by tracking how organisms are responding, or failing to respond, to global change. 

Abstract AimSynthesize literature on genetic structure within species to understand how geographic features and species traits influence past responses to climate change. LocationNorth America. Time PeriodWe synthesized phylogeographic studies from 1978 to 2023, which describe genetic lineages that diverged during the Pleistocene (≥11,700 years ago). Major Taxa StudiedMammals. MethodsWe conducted a literature review to map genetic breaks in species distributions, then tested a set of geographic hypotheses (e.g., mountains, rivers) to explain their position by comparing break locations to a grid within each species' sampled range using logistic regression. We then conducted a meta‐analysis using species‐specific model estimates to ask if life‐history traits explained variation in which barriers were most important in species' past response to climate change. ResultsOur findings reveal heterogeneity in both where North American mammal phylogeography has been studied and the density of genetic breaks across 229 species. We found relatively high concordance among carnivores, ungulates and lagomorphs, where breaks were associated with mountains, major water bodies and relatively even terrain. In contrast, we found high variability within rodents and shrews, and no evidence that intrinsic factors related to dispersal ability explained the importance of hypothesized barriers across all species. Main ConclusionsSouthern Mexico is a hotspot for genetic breaks that has yet to be integrated into the broader story of North American phylogeography. We show that mountains and major water bodies play particularly important roles as barriers, but substantial variation across species within orders suggests that there is more to the story besides shared climatic or phylogenetic histories. Thus, understanding the phylogeography of individual species will continue to be important given that our results suggest high variability in how species may respond to future global change. 

Abstract Site occupancy models (SOMs) are a common tool for studying the spatial ecology of wildlife. When observational data are collected using passive monitoring field methods, including camera traps or autonomous recorders, detections of animals may be temporally autocorrelated, leading to biased estimates and incorrectly quantified uncertainty. We presently lack clear guidance for understanding and mitigating the consequences of temporal autocorrelation when estimating occupancy models with camera trap data.We use simulations to explore when and how autocorrelation gives rise to biased or overconfident estimates of occupancy. We explore the impact of sampling design and biological conditions on model performance in the presence of autocorrelation, investigate the usefulness of several techniques for identifying and mitigating bias and compare performance of the SOM to a model that explicitly estimates autocorrelation. We also conduct a case study using detections of 22 North American mammals.We show that a join count goodness‐of‐fit test previously proposed for identifying clustered detections is effective for detecting autocorrelation across a range of conditions. We find that strong bias occurs in the estimated occupancy intercept when survey durations are short and detection rates are low. We provide a reference table for assessing the degree of bias to be expected under all conditions. We further find that discretizing data with larger windows decreases the magnitude of bias introduced by autocorrelation. In our case study, we find that detections of most species are autocorrelated and demonstrate how larger detection windows might mitigate the resulting bias.Our findings suggest that autocorrelation is likely widespread in camera trap data and that many previous studies of occupancy based on camera trap data may have systematically underestimated occupancy probabilities. Moving forward, we recommend that ecologists estimating occupancy from camera trap data use the join count goodness‐of‐fit test to determine whether autocorrelation is present in their data. If it is, SOMs should use large detection windows to mitigate bias and more accurately quantify uncertainty in occupancy model parameters. Ecologists should not use gaps between detection periods, which are ineffective at mitigating temporal structure in data and discard useful data. 

ABSTRACT Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are opportunistic pathogens that cause chronic pulmonary disease (PD). NTM infections are thought to be acquired from the environment; however, the basal environmental factors that drive and sustain NTM prevalence are not well understood. The highest prevalence of NTM PD cases in the United States is reported from Hawai’i, which is unique in its climate and soil composition, providing an opportunity to investigate the environmental drivers of NTM prevalence. We used microbiological sampling and spatial logistic regression complemented with fine-scale soil mineralogy to model the probability of NTM presence across the natural landscape of Hawai’i. Over 7 years, we collected and microbiologically cultured 771 samples from 422 geographic sites in natural areas across the Hawaiian Islands for the presence of NTM. NTM were detected in 210 of these samples (27%), with Mycobacterium abscessus being the most frequently isolated species. The probability of NTM presence was highest in expansive soils (those that swell with water) with a high water balance (>1-m difference between rainfall and evapotranspiration) and rich in Fe-oxides/hydroxides. We observed a positive association between NTM presence and iron in wet soils, supporting past studies, but no such association in dry soils. High soil-water balance may facilitate underground movement of NTM into the aquifer system, potentially compounded by expansive capabilities allowing crack formation under drought conditions, representing further possible avenues for aquifer infiltration. These results suggest both precipitation and soil properties are mechanisms by which surface NTM may reach the human water supply. IMPORTANCE Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are ubiquitous in the environment, being found commonly in soils and natural bodies of freshwater. However, little is known about the environmental niches of NTM and how they relate to NTM prevalence in homes and other human-dominated areas. To characterize NTM environmental associations, we collected and cultured 771 samples from 422 geographic sites in natural areas across Hawai’i, the U.S. state with the highest prevalence of NTM pulmonary disease. We show that the environmental niches of NTM are most associated with highly expansive, moist soils containing high levels of iron oxides/hydroxides. Understanding the factors associated with NTM presence in the natural environment will be crucial for identifying potential mechanisms and risk factors associated with NTM infiltration into water supplies, which are ultimately piped into homes where most exposure risk is thought to occur. 

Abstract Camera traps deployed in grids or stratified random designs are a well‐established survey tool for wildlife but there has been little evaluation of study design parameters.We used an empirical subsampling approach involving 2,225 camera deployments run at 41 study areas around the world to evaluate three aspects of camera trap study design (number of sites, duration and season of sampling) and their influence on the estimation of three ecological metrics (species richness, occupancy and detection rate) for mammals.We found that 25–35 camera sites were needed for precise estimates of species richness, depending on scale of the study. The precision of species‐level estimates of occupancy (ψ) was highly sensitive to occupancy level, with <20 camera sites needed for precise estimates of common (ψ > 0.75) species, but more than 150 camera sites likely needed for rare (ψ < 0.25) species. Species detection rates were more difficult to estimate precisely at the grid level due to spatial heterogeneity, presumably driven by unaccounted habitat variability factors within the study area. Running a camera at a site for 2 weeks was most efficient for detecting new species, but 3–4 weeks were needed for precise estimates of local detection rate, with no gains in precision observed after 1 month. Metrics for all mammal communities were sensitive to seasonality, with 37%–50% of the species at the sites we examined fluctuating significantly in their occupancy or detection rates over the year. This effect was more pronounced in temperate sites, where seasonally sensitive species varied in relative abundance by an average factor of 4–5, and some species were completely absent in one season due to hibernation or migration.We recommend the following guidelines to efficiently obtain precise estimates of species richness, occupancy and detection rates with camera trap arrays: run each camera for 3–5 weeks across 40–60 sites per array. We recommend comparisons of detection rates be model based and include local covariates to help account for small‐scale variation. Furthermore, comparisons across study areas or times must account for seasonality, which could have strong impacts on mammal communities in both tropical and temperate sites.